The PMF gate is the most important decision point in the SPARK launch. By August 2026, the following metrics must be achieved to confirm product-market fit and proceed to the scale phase.
PMF DEFINITION: Product-market fit is confirmed when users are getting enough value from SPARK that they would be very disappointed if it disappeared. The primary signal is a NPS of ≥40 and a D30 retention rate of ≥20%.
PMF Gate — 31 May 2026 (App-Side Gate)
All app-side metrics must be green to proceed to Phase 3 (offline activation). If any app-side metric is red, Phase 2 is extended by 4 weeks. No offline spending before the gate.
| Metric | Target |
|---|---|
| D30 Retention | ≥20% |
| NPS (Ellis PMF Score) | ≥40 'Very Disappointed' |
| Referral Rate | ≥30% of users refer 1+ |
| Profile Completion | ≥70% complete profiles |
PMF Gate — August 2026 (Full Gate)
| Metric | PMF Gate Target | Phase | Status If Missed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total active users | 8,000–10,000 | Phase 1–2 | Extend Phase 2 by 6 weeks |
| Female ratio | ≥50% | All phases | Pause male onboarding |
| D30 retention | ≥20% | Phase 1–2 | Product emergency — review onboarding |
| Match → meeting rate | ≥15% | Phase 1–2 | Add event invitations, reduce friction |
| NPS | ≥40 | Phase 1–2 | Conduct 20 user interviews immediately |
| Referral rate | ≥20% | Phase 1–2 | Activate WOM mechanics |
| Event fill rate | ≥80% | Phase 3 only | N/A at PMF gate |
| Repeat attendance | ≥40% | Phase 3 only | N/A at PMF gate |
Hypergrowth Scenario: 20,000 Users by September
The hypergrowth scenario requires three conditions to be true simultaneously:
- PMF is confirmed by 31 May with all 5 metrics green
- The referral K-factor exceeds 0.6 by Month 2
- Budget is increased to $25,000–30,000/month from June
If all three conditions are met, 20,000 users by September is achievable. Additional enablers: 10 Ambassadors Active from June, 3 Events/Week from July, 2 Mid-Tier Influencers (100K+ reach each).