PMF Decision Tree
| Outcome | Condition | Action |
|---|---|---|
| SCALE | All metrics met | Proceed to Phase 4. Begin Singapore preparation. Raise Series A. Expand team. |
| EXTEND | 1–2 metrics missed | Extend Phase 2 by 6 weeks. Focus exclusively on failing metrics. Re-evaluate at end of extension. |
| PIVOT | 3+ metrics missed | Conduct 20 user interviews. Identify root cause. Choose: extend Phase 2, narrow to expat-only, or pivot to group social events. |
| EMERGENCY | NPS <30 | Stop all acquisition. Fix the product. Conduct 20 user interviews within 48 hours. Do not acquire new users until NPS >40. |
Pivot Decision Tree — 4 Scenarios
Scenario A: Supply Shortage (CRITICAL)
Triggers: Gender imbalance (female < 45%) · Install growth stalling (< 200/week)
| Step | Action | Owner | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Immediately pause all male-targeted paid acquisition | CEO | Same day |
| 2 | Activate all female acquisition channels: yoga studios, MBA programs, expat women groups | CEO + Growth | 48 hours |
| 3 | Personally DM 20 female super-connectors with personalised invitations | CEO | 48 hours |
| 4 | Review onboarding funnel for female drop-off points | Product | 72 hours |
Pivot Option: If female ratio does not recover to 48%+ within 2 weeks: extend Phase 1 by 4 weeks and do not launch events.
Scenario B: Engagement Collapse (HIGH)
Triggers: Match → Meeting rate < 10% · Sparks sent per user < 1/week
| Step | Action | Owner | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Audit match quality — are profiles complete and photos verified? | CEO | 24 hours |
| 2 | Manually curate 5 high-quality matches per active user | CEO + Community | 48 hours |
| 3 | Add in-app experience prompts: suggest 3 specific venues for first meeting | Product | 1 week |
| 4 | Reduce Spark cost temporarily or add bonus Sparks to active users | CEO | 48 hours |
Pivot Option: If meeting rate does not recover to 12%+ within 3 weeks: pivot to curated group experiences as primary matching mechanism.
Scenario C: WOM Engine Failure (HIGH)
Triggers: Referral installs < 10% of total · WOM growth flat for 2+ weeks
| Step | Action | Owner | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Interview 10 active users: why haven't they referred anyone? | CEO | 48 hours |
| 2 | Increase referral reward — test double-sided incentive (both referrer and referee get bonus Sparks) | CEO + Product | 1 week |
| 3 | Create shareable Match Card feature: users share anonymised match story to Instagram Stories | Product | 2 weeks |
| 4 | Activate NPS survey for all users with 3+ meetings — identify promoters and personally ask for referrals | CEO | 1 week |
Pivot Option: If referral rate does not reach 15%+ within 4 weeks: shift budget from paid acquisition to event production to generate organic content.
Scenario D: PMF Gate Failure (STRATEGIC)
Triggers: PMF gate metrics not met by July 2026 · Two or more red flags simultaneously
| Step | Action | Owner | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Do not raise funding or expand to new city — stabilise Bangkok first | CEO | Immediate |
| 2 | Narrow target to expat-only cohort (higher disposable income, lower cultural friction) | CEO | 1 week |
| 3 | Pivot event format: replace 1:1 matching events with group social dinners (lower commitment, easier to fill) | CEO + Events | 2 weeks |
| 4 | Extend Phase 2 by 6 weeks. Reset PMF gate to September 2026. | CEO | Decision within 1 week |
Pivot Option: If September 2026 PMF gate also fails: consider full pivot to B2B corporate social events or sell the influencer network as a standalone product.